IRCC is holding off on inviting FSWP and CEC candidates so that it can tackle its backlogs.

This is revealed in an internal briefing memo that CIC News requested and successfully obtained from the department.

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Although the memo is heavily redacted, it contains key insights on Canada’s Express Entry operations.

The memo begins by stating that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) stopped Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) invitations in December 2020 to pursue a strategy of “aggressively” inviting Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates and candidates under the Temporary Resident to Permanent Resident (TR2PR) pathway to support its 2021 immigration targets.

The memo states “this strategy led to significant inventory growth, creating a backlog of applications, and processing times in excess of the service standards for all economic categories.”

As reported by CIC News last week, IRCC’s backlog stood at 1.8 million applications as of October 2021. This includes permanent residence, temporary residence, and Canadian citizenship applications. The backlog has grown from 1.5 million applications in July 2021. The statistics show there were 99,968 Express Entry permanent residence applications awaiting processing as of October 27, 2021.

It appears that some progress is being made on reducing Express Entry application backlogs. The internal IRCC briefing notes the backlog was at about 108,500 as of the date of the note, September 3, 2021.

This suggests the Express Entry backlog decreased by about 8,500 applications over the period between September 3rd and October 27 of this year.

The briefing mentions the backlog of Express Entry candidates was 62,450 candidates at the same point last year (i.e., September 2020). This means it has nearly doubled amid IRCC’s strategy to focus on providing permanent residence to candidates in Canada.

IRCC states in the memo that “Adjusting to meet the Afghanistan resettlement objectives has created the need for trade-offs in the Spousal Sponsorship category, CEC, and the TR2PR program. As a result, the Department now anticipates concluding 2021 with a PR [permanent residence] inventory in excess of 760K persons, with 360K in the economic class.”

It is unknown if IRCC’s forecasts have changed. As of October 27, the permanent residence inventory stood at nearly 550,000 applications, of which over 255,000 fell under the economic class. Given the slight decline in the Express Entry backlog between September and October, it is possible that IRCC has revised its internal forecast on backlogs and no longer expects them to be as large as indicated in the September 3rd memo.

IRCC notes in its memo it will need to cut the Express Entry backlog by “more than half” in order to achieve its Express Entry processing standard of six months or less.

The memo concludes by stating senior IRCC officials will return to the department’s highest ranking civil servant (i.e., non-political employee), the Deputy Minister Catrina Tapley, in November 2021 with a plan for Express Entry intakes throughout the remainder of 2021, and early 2022, once there is a better sense of the composition of immigrants IRCC will look to target in 2022.

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About Express Entry

IRCC operates the Express Entry system to manage applications for the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP). Express Entry is the main way Canada welcomes economic class immigrants.

Candidates who are eligible for any of the three programs can create profiles on IRCC’s website. They receive a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score based on their human capital characteristics such as their age, education, language skills, and work experience.

Prior to the pandemic, IRCC held Express Entry draws approximately every two weeks and invited the highest scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence. Invited candidates had 60 days to submit their completed permanent residence applications to IRCC. IRCC then aimed to process applications within its service standard of six months or less for most candidates. FSWP candidates were the lead recipients of Invitations to Apply (ITA) for permanent residence, followed by CEC candidates.

The pandemic has changed things, however. This year, IRCC has only invited CEC and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates to apply for permanent residence, even if they were not the highest scoring candidates among all candidates in the Express Entry pool. Moreover, IRCC is not currently able to commit to maintaining its processing standard of six months due to the pandemic.

The CEC is a popular program among former international students and foreign workers who have at least 1 year of professional work experience in Canada. The PNP exists to address the local labour market needs of provinces and territories across Canada. If an Express Entry candidate also meets the criteria of a PNP stream, a province can invite them to apply to their PNP. If the candidate accepts the invitation, they receive an additional 600 CRS points, which essentially guarantees they will receive an ITA under Express Entry.

The focus in 2021 on only inviting CEC and PNP candidates is to help IRCC achieve its goal of landing 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021 as set out in its Immigration Levels Plan 2021-2023. IRCC’s focus on CEC and PNP candidates is guided by a two-fold rationale.

First, CEC candidates are mostly in Canada and hence less likely to be impacted by COVID-related disruptions that would impede their ability to gain permanent residence, and hence undermine IRCC’s ability to land 401,000 immigrants this year. Second, IRCC views PNP draws as necessary to support the labour market needs of Canada’s provinces.

This year, IRCC has held 33 PNP specific draws, inviting 17,785 candidates in all. Meanwhile, there have been 27 CEC specific draws, resulting in 133,868 invitations.

The last CEC draw took place on September 14. The IRCC briefing note indicates the pause in CEC draws is to allow IRCC to manage its current Express Entry backlog.

FSWP candidates have been the ones most negatively impacted by the above temporary policy changes. In an email to CIC News, IRCC confirmed there were almost 165,000 FSWP eligible candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2021. This means they represent over 85 per cent of Express Entry candidates currently in the pool.

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Canada invited 613 Express Entry candidates to apply for permanent residence on November 24.

All invited candidates had previously received nominations through a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The automatic 600 points that come with the nomination drove the minimum cut-off score to 737. Without the nomination, the lowest-scoring candidate would have had 137 points.

This is the sixth PNP-specific Express Entry draw that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has held in a row. In the previous draw, IRCC invited 775 candidates with scores of at least 685.

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Express Entry during the pandemic

Canada closed its border on March 18, 2020. Since then, IRCC has focused on admitting immigrants who are already in the country. Part of its strategy was to invite Express Entry candidates who were more likely to be residing in Canada, or who were nominated by a PNP.

There was a period where Canada invited Express Entry candidates from all programs, but in 2021 IRCC has only invited candidates from the Provincial Nominee Class and Canadian Experience Class (CEC). Canada has held 33 PNP-specific Express Entry draws in which 17,785 candidates received invitations to apply for permanent residence. In the same timeframe, Canada has held 27 CEC draws that rendered 133,868 invitations.

On February 13 of this year, Canada invited 27,332 CEC candidates in a single draw. Throughout the summer, the immigration department was issuing 6,000 CEC invitations at a time.

There are generally more CEC-eligible candidates in the Express Entry pool at any given time, so these figures are not surprising. PNP candidates need to go through a separate application process with a province or territory in order to get the nomination. Once they do though, it is almost guaranteed that they will be invited to apply for Canadian immigration.

IRCC has continued to invite PNP candidates due to the federal government’s immigration agreements with the provinces and territories. Although Canada has the final say on who gets permanent residence and citizenship, the provinces get to nominate newcomers who can help them meet their strategic plans for population and economic growth. Studies have shown both PNP and CEC candidates tend to do well in the labour market.

Canada’s border is currently open for fully vaccinated tourists and other essential travellers. As of January, 2022, it will only be open to people who are fully inoculated with a vaccine from an approved manufacturer.

What is Express Entry?

Express Entry is the application management system for Canada’s three most popular immigration programs: the Canadian Experience Class, the Federal Skilled Worker Program, and the Federal Skilled Trades Program. PNP candidates in the Express Entry pool have already qualified for one of these programs.

Who was invited?

The following is a hypothetical example of someone who may have received an ITA in the new Express Entry draw.

Raymond is 39, holds a bachelor’s degree and has been working as a construction manager for six years. He has an advanced English language proficiency and has never worked or studied in Canada. He entered the Express Entry pool with a CRS score of 386. Raymond recently received a provincial nomination. His new CRS score of 986 would have been high enough to get an ITA in the new Express Entry draw.

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Alberta invited 200 Express Entry candidates to apply for a provincial nomination on November 9.

The Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program (AINP) invited candidates who had scores of at least 343 in the Express Entry system.

The latest draw is the first one of many with a higher cutoff score than 300, which is the minimum needed to be eligible for the Alberta Express Entry Stream.

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Alberta has now invited 6,359 Express Entry candidates to apply for a provincial nomination since it resumed invitation rounds in January 2021. The province had taken a temporary hiatus in the latter months of 2020. Candidates in the Express Entry pool are invited to apply for a Certificate of nomination by the Province of Alberta through regular draws, the receipt of which will greatly support their application for permanent residence.

This year, Alberta is allowed to issue 6,250 nomination certificates. Since the number of invitations issued has now exceeded the number of certificates of nomination that can be granted, the province may have finished issuing invitations for the current year.

How does the Alberta Express Entry Stream work?

The Alberta Express Entry stream is an enhanced Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). It allows the provincial government to search the federal government’s Express Entry pool of candidates for profiles of people who may be eligible for a provincial nomination.

Express Entry is the application management system for the three Federal High Skilled programs: Canadian Experience Class, Federal Skilled Worker Program, and Federal Skilled Trades Program.

If you are eligible for Express Entry, you will get a score based on the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS). You get points depending on your age, education, work experience, language ability in English or French, and other factors.

Canada’s immigration department, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) regularly holds Express Entry draws, inviting the highest-scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence.

It is possible to immigrate through the Express Entry system without a provincial nomination, however, people who have lower CRS scores may opt for a PNP. Provincial nominees automatically get 600 points added to their overall score. If the lowest-scoring candidates in the new Alberta draw receive the nomination, their new CRS scores will be 900, more than enough to be invited in a subsequent Express Entry draw.

Alberta Express Entry Stream Eligibility

In order to be eligible for the provincial nomination through the Alberta Express Entry stream, you need to have work experience in an eligible occupation.

The AINP does not provide a list of eligible occupations, rather it offers a list of occupations that are not eligible for the stream. Many who apply under this stream work as food service supervisors, transport truck drivers, and cooks among others.

Certain factors increase your likelihood of being nominated, like having work experience, a Canadian education, or a job offer in Alberta. It also helps to have a family member already living in Alberta, such as a parent, child, or sibling.

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IRCC’s backlog stands at almost 1.8 million immigration applications.

CIC News has received data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) showing the following number of applications in IRCC’s inventory as of October 27, 2021 (figures are rounded):

• 548,000 permanent residence applications (economic, family, refugee, and humanitarian class applicants)
• 776,000 temporary residence applications (applications for study permits, work permits, temporary resident visas, and visitor extensions)
• 468,000 Canadian citizenship applications (as of October 26)
• 1,792,000 total applications in inventory

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IRCC’s figures indicate their backlog has grown by nearly 350,000 applications since July.

In August, a report by Nicholas Keung of the Toronto Star showed that the backlog as of July 6, 2021 stood at about:

• 375,000 permanent residence applications
• 703,000 temporary residence applications
• 370,000 Canadian citizenship applications. The Star reported that this figure did not include Canadian citizenship applications sitting in IRCC’s mailrooms that have yet to be processed.
• 1,448,000 total applications in inventory

In an email to CIC News, an IRCC spokesperson explained “Ongoing international travel restrictions, border restrictions, limited operational capacity overseas and the inability on the part of clients to obtain documentation due to the effects of COVID-19 have created barriers within the processing continuum. This hinders IRCC’s ability to finalize applications, creating delays that are outside IRCC’s control.”

At the same time, the spokesperson acknowledged the challenges that applicants are facing, noting “Despite our efforts, we know that some applicants have experienced considerable wait times with the processing of their applications, and we continue to work as hard as possible to reduce processing times. We thank them for their patience and understanding at this moment, and we look forward to welcoming them to Canada.”

IRCC also shared data on the number of applications it has processed during the pandemic:

• 337,000 permanent residence applications processed between January and September 2021. It processed some 214,000 applications in 2020.
• 1,500,000 temporary residence applications processed between January and September 2021. This compares to nearly 1,700,000 applications in 2020.
• 134,000 Canadian citizenship applications processed between January and September 2021. This compares to about 80,000 applications processed in 2020.

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The following tables provide detail on the backlogs by permanent and temporary residence program:

Number of Permanent Residence Applications in Processing Inventory as of October 27, 2021 by Application Type (in Persons)

Number of Temporary Residence Applications (Including Extensions) in Inventory as of October 27, 2021 by Application Type (in Persons)

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Canada plans to hold its Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) 2021 lottery over the coming days.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will draw 30,000 candidates from the lottery over a two-week period beginning the week of September 20. Those who receive an invitation will have up to 60 days to submit their completed sponsorship applications to IRCC.

Details of the PGP 2021 were announced by Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino in July.

Only those who submitted an interest to sponsor form to IRCC between October and November 2020 will be considered in the lottery. Last autumn, Canadian citizens and eligible permanent residents had the opportunity to complete an online form to notify IRCC of their interest to sponsor their parents and grandparents.

Those sponsored under the PGP receive Canadian permanent resident status and associated benefits such as access to free health care. After meeting the eligibility criteria, parents and grandparents can then go on to apply for Canadian citizenship.

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Eligibility Criteria for the PGP 2021

As noted above, a key eligibility criteria for the PGP 2021 is that sponsors submitted an interest to sponsor form on IRCC’s website last autumn.

In addition, sponsors must be at least 18 years old, and Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or be status First Nations.

Sponsors need to show IRCC they have enough money to support their family members and the individuals they are sponsoring. This requirement is called the Minimum Necessary Income (MNI). IRCC will evaluate your MNI for the 2020, 2019, and 2018 tax years. You must submit your Notices of Assessment from the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) to demonstrate you meet the MNI.

If you reside in Quebec, the provincial government requires that you and your co-signer (if applicable) demonstrate your income over the past 12 months. This income must meet the province’s requirements to go ahead with the PGP sponsorship application.

Both IRCC and the Quebec government require that sponsors sign an undertaking agreement. The undertaking period is 20 years for residents across Canada while it is 10 years for residents of Quebec. During this period sponsors are financially responsible for their parents and grandparents. This means that any social assistance obtained by parents or grandparents during the undertaking period would need to be repaid to the government by the sponsor.

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What if you do not receive a PGP 2021 invitation?

If you are not among the 30,000 invited by IRCC during the lottery, you may wish to consider the Super Visa as an alternative. It enables Canadian citizens and permanent residents to bring their parents and grandparents to Canada for a multi-year visa that is valid for up to two years upon the first trip to Canada. Under the Super Visa, parents and grandparents can enter Canada multiple times over a 10 year period.

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This past June, there was a spike in job openings in accommodation and food services in Canada.

As restaurants started reopening in June, there were 129,100 vacant positions in accommodation and food services jobs, according to Statistics Canada’s job vacancy report. There were more openings in this sector than even health care and social assistance, which had the highest number of vacancies the month before. Canada’s retail trade sector came in third place.

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Job vacancies in food services drove up the number of vacant positions in Canada. There were a total of 815,800 job openings in June, a 22 per cent increase from May. The majority of these openings were in service sectors.

June also had the highest job vacancy rate since Statistics Canada started collecting data in October 2020. There is a difference between the job vacancy rate and the number of job vacancies. The vacancy rate is the proportion of vacant positions compared to the number of all positions in a sector. In June, Canada’s overall vacancy rate reached 5 per cent.

Accommodation and food services also had the highest job vacancy rate of all sectors at more than 12 per cent. Employers were actively recruiting to fill vacant positions as restaurants began opening up outdoor dining starting in late May.

Among the provinces, B.C. and Quebec had the highest job vacancy rates. Manitoba and Nova Scotia had the lowest job vacancy rates.

Labour shortages expected to intensify

A recent RBC report suggests that labour shortages will continue to increase in the coming months.

In 2020, workers held off retiring and switching jobs due to dissatisfaction amid the period of overwhelming economic uncertainty. These workers may now start quitting their jobs, which would drive up the number of vacant positions.

Also, many workers in service sectors that were affected by the pandemic may have left their positions due to extended shut downs.

Economist Carrie Freestone, who authored the report, says a high job-vacancy rate can drag economic growth. Businesses may be forced to operate at reduced capacity. Employees are now in a stronger bargaining position to negotiate higher wages and better benefits. Also, the tight labour market may put upward pressure on wages, leading to higher consumer prices.

Provinces with the highest job vacancy levels may face challenges hiring for lower-paid positions. Although wages in accommodation and food services were up in June, average wages remained 57 per cent below other service-sector jobs. This may explain the increase in food services vacancies, and may continue to affect the sector if workers have left permanently.

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Saskatchewan held a new round of invitations on September 8.

The Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP) invited 528 candidates to apply for one of two immigration programs. Of those invited, 316 may be eligible for the SINP’s Express Entry subcategory, and 212 through the Occupations In-Demand sub-category.

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The lowest-scoring candidate from each sub-category had 66 points Saskatchewan’s Expression of Interest (EOI) ranking system.

In this draw, there were 16 eligible occupations for each category. The full list of eligible occupations can be found on Saskatchewan’s government website.

Both groups also needed Educational Credential Assessments to demonstrate their foreign education was comparable to the Canadian standard.

About Saskatchewan’s Express Entry sub-category

The Express Entry sub-category is an enhanced Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), meaning it is linked to the federal Express Entry system.

Express Entry manages the pool of candidates for three of Canada’s main economic-class immigration programs: Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class.

Candidates with Express Entry profiles must also create EOI profiles for Saskatchewan in order to be considered for an invitation to apply for a provincial nomination.

Express Entry candidates who receive a provincial nomination from the province of Saskatchewan are awarded an additional 600 points toward their Comprehensive Ranking System score. This award effectively guarantees them a chance to apply for Canadian permanent residence.

About the Occupations In-Demand subcategory

The Occupations In-Demand sub-category is a base PNP, meaning it is open to immigration candidates who do not have an Express Entry profile.

This sub-category is for highly skilled workers with experience in an in-demand occupation in Saskatchewan, who do not yet have a job offer in the province.

In order to apply for Canadian immigration through this sub-category, foreign nationals need to create an EOI profile through the SINP’s online application system.

Saskatchewan’s EOI system allows the province to select immigration candidates that have the potential to thrive in the prairie province. Candidates will be assessed on how their work experience, education, language ability, age, and connections to the province demonstrate their ability to settle in Saskatchewan.

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Quebec invited 517 immigration candidates to apply for permanent selection on September 2.

This is the fourth round of invitations held over the past four weeks under the Quebec Regular Skilled Worker Program (QSWP).

Candidates who received invitations to apply for permanent selection by the Ministère de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration (MIFI) in the September 2 draw needed a score of at least 499 in the Arrima pool.

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The latest invitations sent out through Arrima also targeted candidates with a valid job offer outside the Montréal Metropolitan area and who work in occupations that are currently in high demand in Quebec. The list of targeted occupations provided by the government is as follows:

• Computer and information systems managers (NOC 0213);
• Electrical and electronics engineers (NOC 2133);
• Industrial and manufacturing engineers (NOC 2141);
• Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers) (NOC 2147);
• Information systems analysts and consultants (NOC 2171);
• Database analysts and data administrators (NOC 2172);
• Software engineers and designers (NOC 2173)
• Computer programmers and interactive media developers (NOC 2174);
• Web designers and developers (NOC 2175);
• Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians (NOC 2241);
• Computer network technicians (NOC 2281);
• User support technicians (NOC 2282);
• Information systems testing technicians (NOC 2283);
• Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations (NOC 5131);
• Graphic arts technicians (NOC 5223);
• Graphic designers and illustrators (NOC 5241);
• Technical sales specialists – wholesale trade (NOC 6221).

Following several months of invitations being sent out monthly, Quebec seems to be stepping up the pace by issuing record numbers of invitations via Arrima every week. Since August 12, Quebec had been conducting Arrima draws every week, in which the number of invited candidates exceeded 500—significantly more than any of the other draws conducted this year.

This draw is Quebec’s ninth of the year. A total of 2,664 candidates have now been invited to apply for permanent selection by the province.

What is the Quebec Regular Skilled Worker Program?

The Quebec Regular Skilled Worker Program is for skilled workers who are more likely to establish themselves economically in the province. The program is popular among skilled workers and international graduates who wish to immigrate permanently to Quebec to work.

Candidates who are invited to apply for permanent selection must do so within six months, starting on the date they submitted all the required information to process their application. This includes all forms and documents.

If successful, candidates will get a Certificat de sélection du Québec (CSQ or Quebec Selection Certificate). They can then use this document to apply for permanent residence to the Canadian federal government.

Those who wish to settle in Quebec, are assessed under a different system than applicants who want to settle somewhere else in Canada. Quebec’s immigration programs are managed by the province and are distinct from Canada’s federal programs.

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B.C. invited 34 tech workers to apply for a provincial nomination on September 7.

The invitations were issued through the BC PNP Tech, which is a stream under the British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program (BC PNP).

Candidates invited through B.C’s Tech draws must meet the requirements of one of British Columbia’s Express Entry BC and Skills immigration categories, which are managed by the Skills and Immigration Registration System (SIRS).

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Candidates who received invitations in this draw were from the Skilled Worker and International Graduate subcategories and needed a minimum provincial score of 80.

Invited candidates now have 30 calendar days to apply for the nomination.

So far in 2021, British Columbia has issued over 8,100 invitations to apply for provincial nomination.

About the BC PNP Tech program

The BC PNP Tech was launched in May 2017 as a pilot project following a labour market study that found the biggest issue facing B.C.’s technology sector was access to talent. Following the success of the project, B.C made it a permanent program. The program is designed to enable employers in British Columbia’s technology sector to continue to attract and select international talent when qualified workers are not available locally.

More specifically, the BC PNP Tech is a fast-track immigration pathway for in-demand tech workers and international students. Candidates need to be registered in one of B.C.’s existing provincial immigration streams and have a valid job offer of at least 12 months in one of 29 eligible occupations to qualify for the stream.

Unlike other BC PNP streams, job offers under the BC PNP Tech must be for a minimum of one year, with at least 120 days remaining at the time of application to the BC PNP. It must also be full-time and from an eligible employer in the province.

Invitations through the province’s tech program are sent out weekly to the top-scoring candidates who meet the eligibility requirements.

Candidates who are invited to apply for a provincial nomination will need to submit a complete application. Once this is done, most tech applications will be processed within two to three months.

If they are approved, candidates will receive a nomination confirmation that can be used to apply for permanent residence from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) under the Provincial Nominee Program Class.

PNP candidates automatically earn 600 points for their score in the Comprehensive Ranking System and thus have a very good chance of obtaining an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for permanent residence via Express Entry.

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The federal election taking place on September 20 will shape Canada’s immigration system for up to the next four years.

The election result is the most important event in Canada’s immigration system since the federal government is largely responsible for the policies that impact the system. The Constitution outlines immigration as an area of shared federal-provincial jurisdiction, with the federal government having the final say. In practice, while provinces and territories across Canada are very active in recruiting and settling newcomers, it is the federal government, namely Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) that has the greatest control over the nation’s immigration policies. For instance, IRCC determines national immigration levels as well as allocations for each province, processing times, and is the largest funder by far of the settlement and integration services offered across the country.

IRCC gets its direction from the political party that forms government after each federal election. Hence, the party that leads the country after September 20 will leave a lasting impression on the immigration system. The following is an overview of what you can expect and is based on the events that followed the 2015 and 2019 federal elections.

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Between now and when the new government takes effect, IRCC and the provinces and territories will continue to undertake their existing immigration responsibilities. This means that Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), and other immigration streams will continue to operate. Moreover, IRCC will continue to process applications and conduct its other areas of operations. What typically does not happen around federal election periods is the implementation of new policies and programs. Instead, IRCC waits for the new government to take power and provide it with policy guidance.

After the election, the governing party will need some time, usually 1-2 months, before they determine cabinet members and other key appointments. The transition then occurs and they begin to govern the federal government. Around this time, the Prime Minister will provide each minister with a mandate letter. The mandate letter will outline what policy priorities each minister, including the immigration minister, is being asked by the Prime Minister to carry out during the new government’s time in office. The immigration minister’s mandate letter will shape IRCC’s priorities, and in turn, have an impact on the provinces, territories, and entire immigration system.

In 2019, the election took place in October, cabinet was announced in November, and then the mandate letters were released after the winter holidays in January 2020.

In 2015, the election took place in October, cabinet was introduced in November, and the mandate letters also became public in November.

This time around, we should have cabinet and the new government in place by November at the latest. It is likely that the new government will have time before the winter holidays in December to begin to roll out their policies and also reveal the new mandate letters. It is important to note that the Liberals are the current governing party and Marco Mendicino is the federal Immigration Minister. Should the Liberals win another election, it is entirely possible that Mendicino will remain the Immigration Minister and priorities contained in his existing mandate letters will be rolled over into the new mandate.

Following the revealing of the immigration minister and mandate letter for IRCC, the next big immigration system event will be the tabling of the 2022-2024 Immigration Levels Plan. The levels plan outlines the number of immigrants that IRCC will seek to welcome each year, which categories it will seek to welcome newcomers under, and the allocation of newcomers it is providing to each province and territory. This announcement usually takes place by November 1st each year, but it is delayed by several months in the years that elections take place. Following the 2015 and 2019 elections, the levels plan announcement occurred in the first quarter of the New Year. Following this September’s election, we should get the new levels plan by March 2022 at the latest, however the announcement itself should simply be a continuation of ongoing efforts to welcome over 400,000 new immigrants to Canada each year.

We can expect Budget 2022 to be released around the same time as the levels plan announcement. Among its features, the budget outlines what the federal government plans to spend its money on. It sometimes contains new policy announcements which impact the immigration system. Earlier this year, for instance, Budget 2021 noted the federal government plans to spend nearly $430 million to update its IT infrastructure to improve application processing for the immigration system.

Gradually over 2022, we should then see the new government hit its stride and introduce new immigration policies and programs. Irrespective of the outcome on September 20, we should expect IRCC and the provinces and territories to continue to invite new immigrants and process applications. What may change is the areas of the immigration system they choose to focus on, which again, will be influenced by the political orientation of the new government.

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